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Thursday, July 19, 2012

Consumer Price Index Jun 2012

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers for June 2012...



TypeMay 2012Jun 2012
Consolidated10.3610.02
Urban11.5210.44
Rural9.579.74

Highlights (in brief):
  • Vegetables costlier by 27.60 percent
  • Edible oils by 16.58 percent
  • Milk products by 12.75 percent
  • Fruits by 6.92 percent

Here is the breakdown of CPI Data for Tamilnadu (The base is 100 in the year 2010)

Tamilnadu AttributeUrbanRuralCombined
Food, beverages and tobacco120.7120.9120.8
Fuel and light130.3132.4131.4
Clothing, bedding and footwear124.1125.4124.8
HousingNA122.0NA
Miscellaneous120.3117.0118.6
General Index121.6121.2121.4

It is interesting to compare the above with Puducherry's numbers given below.

Puducherry AttributeUrbanRuralCombined
Food, beverages and tobacco120.8120.9120.9
Fuel and light120.9117.4118.6
Clothing, bedding and footwear132.7126.7128.5
HousingNA117.9NA
Miscellaneous116.1115.5115.7
General Index120.0118.8119.1

If you are interested in numbers for other states, you can find it here.  The constituents of each attribute can be found in this document..

You can find the analysis of the CPI numbers on  Firstpost, Financial Express and many other newspapers.  Based on the numbers of CPI and WPI, it is not expected that the RBI to cut policy rates on the 31st of this month.  Hence your rates on loans is unlikely to come down anytime soon.









Background on CPI - The CPI index was only published starting January of 2012 and hence does not have much history associated with it.  There is a good analysis that you may be interested in.  

The RBI relies more on the WPI (Wholesale Price Index) number for its policy decisions (which includes the interest rates, CRR) currently.  The RBI's current perspective about inflation indices is echoed from the governor's recent speech: 
In its present structure, the WPI does not capture the price movement of services. Also, it is a hybrid of consumer and producer price quotes. For example, the index captures the price of important commodities like milk from the retail markets; not at the producer level. In contrast to CPI, PPI measures price changes from the perspective of the seller. Sellers’ and purchasers’ prices differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs. For these reasons, it is, therefore, desirable that we move towards developing a Producer Price Index (PPI) that measures the average change over time in the sale prices of domestic goods and services. 
Hoping that the central bank has the data in future to come up with the right policy rates.

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